Forces RAF Kirton in Lindsey Information Portal

Local & Online Information for Armed Forces Personnel, Families & Civilians at RAF Kirton in Lindsey. Weather, Jobs, Schools, Shops, Services, Advertising, Business, News, Events, Groups, Sports, Transport, Attractions, Traffic News, Hotels, Holiday and B&B Accommodation

BBC News: Iraq forces push against jihadists
Tuesday 2nd September 2014
Click for BBC news. Great photo by Chris Spracklen!

To Advertise on this site or any other 2day websites, contact 2day using the form below. Ads from under £2 per week. Charity Ads free. For Military / Garrison related enquiries please click the Contact tab (top right of screen).

Personal Financial Advice for Corringham from Money Morning with discount voucher!

  • London's property market is looking wobbly – is it about to topple?
  • The tech industry has a new target
  • Equity crowdfunding: you can invest in start-ups
  • Friday's close: FTSE 100 up 0.2% to 6,820… Gold down 0.1% to $1,287.81/oz… £/$ - 1.6598

From Matthew Partridge, across the river from the City


Dear Reader,

We have pretty strong views on London property.

Cheap money and low interest rates – as well as an influx of foreign cash – have created a massive bubble (yet again). Valuation ratios such as prices to incomes are now at historic highs (yet again).

This can't be maintained. Indeed, the downside from here could be huge – potentially even bigger than the 20% fall (excluding inflation) seen from the winter of 2007 to the first three months of 2009.

Yet last week's data from the Nationwide and the Land Registry both seem to suggest that prices are still soaring higher and higher.

So does the bubble have further to go before it pops?

---------------------- Advertisment ----------------------

Are you ever confused by the world of finance?

Many people are. But if you're going to make good investment decisions, you need to have a clear understanding of what's going on – and what it means for you.

We've created something designed to give you just that.

You can try it for FREE by clicking here.

MoneyWeek magazine is an unregulated product published by MoneyWeek Ltd.


The historic data still looks good for London…

If you just look at the headline figures, it seems hard to deny that the London property bubble is still going on. For example, the Land Registry reckons that prices rose by a whopping 3.3% in July.

However, it may not be the best measure of house prices in this fast-moving market. The big problem is that the Land Registry figures measure prices at the time the sale finally goes through and is recorded.

Given the amount of time that passes between an offer being made on a house and the paperwork being signed, this means the Land Registry data is several months out of date, catching the last of the late spring boom.

In any case, it isn't even that useful as an out-of-date snapshot of the London market. Since it includes cash sales, it is skewed towards high-end properties. Indeed, if you dig deep into the borough-wide data, then excluding the City of London, the median monthly price change is a much more modest 1.5%.

Of course, data from Nationwide also suggested that prices are still rising. And this data is much more timely – Nationwide's index takes a snapshot of the market at the time the mortgage is approved.

However, the note that followed the data was much more bearish. Robert Gardener of Nationwide thinks that "the outlook for the housing market remains highly uncertain". He notes the number of falling mortgage approvals and the fact that "new buyer enquiries have moderated somewhat in recent months".

He also warns that "the prospect of interest rate increases together with subdued wage growth may temper demand in the quarters ahead".

But the more up-to-date news is grim

Meanwhile, a very different picture is given by property website Hometrack. Its survey suggests that UK-wide prices went up by only
0.1%, while those in London stayed completely flat. This suggests that the capital is starting to fall behind the rest of the UK.

Delving into the data, only 11% of London postcodes saw a rise in prices. This contrasts with nearly 90% earlier in the year. The time spent on the market has also risen – from 2.7 weeks to more than a month. And the percentage of the asking price achieved has dropped from 98.8% to 96.4%.

The director of research at Hometrack argues that there is "clear evidence of a slowdown, particularly in the London market". What's more, "important lead indicators in this survey are turning and pointing to a loss of momentum in house price growth".

That's pretty bearish. You could argue that this is just one property website against a big lender like Nationwide and the Land Registry. But Hometrack does have one big advantage in terms of timeliness, in that it measures prices when an offer is made and accepted.

This enables it to capture trends at an earlier point than other indices. And it backs up another early indicator – the Rightmove asking prices survey – which also suggests that the market has turned.

I can only speak for a small part of southeast London. But judging from my own efforts to buy a flat at a half-reasonable price, I'd suggest that the reality is closer to what Hometrack (and Rightmove) are observing, rather than the figures from Nationwide and the Land Registry.

Up until about six weeks ago, things were crazy. Prices were rising so quickly that the asking price was seen as a floor, not a ceiling. In some cases, properties were being listed on Friday and being sold come the following Monday.

However, recently owners are more willing to make concessions, estate agents have more time to show people around, and flats are lingering on the market. Meanwhile, the asking price has moved from being a floor back to its more normal place as ceiling.

I've also seen a few cases of a property marked as "under offer" suddenly appearing back on the market again at a lower price. This isn't an isolated phenomenon – according to The Times, 40% of deals in the capital are falling through.

And a recent warning from estate agent Foxtons backs this up. Last week, the company saw its share price left reeling as it warned that "initiatives introduced in 2014 aimed at controlling mortgage lending, together with the expectation of increases in interest rates, are now having an impact on short-term demand among buyers".

As my fellow Money Morning writer Dominic Frisby noted recently, Foxtons' share price is something of an indicator as regards the health of the London market.

In short, it feels like we've reached a turning point in the housing market. And once that happens, past experience suggests that prices won't just plateau – they will start to fall. Put it this way – I wouldn't see the recent drop in the Foxtons share price as a buying opportunity yet.

Got a comment on this article? Leave a comment on the MoneyWeek website, here.

Until tomorrow,

Matthew Partridge
Senior Writer, MoneyWeek

Share this article today:


Our recommended articles for today…

The tech industry has a new target
- Mobile banking is set to become the next big thing, says Bengt Saelensminde. And for early investors, it promises to be a very lucrative market: The tech industry has a new target

Equity crowdfunding: you can invest in start-ups
- In this video, Ed Bowsher explains how equity crowdfunding works as well as the risks and opportunities: Equity crowdfunding: you can invest in start-ups

On this day in history
1 September 1958: The first Cod War begins

On this day in 1958, Iceland extended its exclusive fishing zone to 12 miles, sparking the first 'Cod War' with Britain. Read more here.

And for Friday’s market update, see below...

<hr< div="">

This gold pattern has an urgent message...

Have you got any gold in your portfolio? If you have, congratulations - one gold expert thinks you're in line for a highly profitable 2014.

His optimism is based on one unbroken pattern he's uncovered in the gold market - and he's got over 50% of his capital in one niche investment that he thinks is set to dwarf the metal's potential climb...

Click here to find out what he's banking on

Metals and Miners is a regulated product issued by Fleet Street Publications Ltd. Your capital is at risk when you invest in shares, never risk more than you can afford to lose. Forecasts are not a reliable indicator of future results. Please seek independent financial advice if necessary. Fleet Street Publications Ltd. 0207 633 3600.

Market update

Click here for the latest stock market news and charts.

The FTSE 100 rose 14 points before the weekend to close at 6,820.

Miners performed well in Friday's trading. Fresnillo topped the index with a gain of 2.3%, and Randgold Resources rose 1.6%. Anglo American was 1.2% higher.

However, supermarkets made up the bulk of the day's fallers. Tesco suffered the biggest sell-off, falling 6.6%. Morrisons fell 5.0% and Sainsbury's was down 4.4%.

In Europe, the Paris CAC 40 rose 15 points to 4,381, and the German Xetra Dax gained seven points to 9,470.

In the US, the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.1% to 17,098, the S&P 500 rose 0.3% to 2,003, and the Nasdaq Composite was 0.5% higher at 4,580.

Overnight in Asia, Japan's Nikkei 225 rose 0.3% to 15,477, and the broader Topix index gained 0.4% to 1,283. And in China, the Shanghai Composite rose 0.8% to 2,236, and the CSI 300 gained 0.7% to 2,355.

Brent spot was trading at $102.86 early today, and in New York, crude oil was at $95.63. Spot gold was trading at $1,289 an ounce, silver was at $19.42 and platinum was at $1,419.

In the forex markets this morning, sterling was trading against the US dollar at 1.6628 and against the euro at 1.2661. The dollar was trading at 0.7614 against the euro and 104.14 against the Japanese yen.

And in the UK, Barclays has sold its Spanish retail and corporate banking operations to Spanish bank Caixabank for £632m. The deal will hand Barclays a loss after tax of around £500m and transfer over half a million customers to the Spanish bank.

MONEY MORNING™ is the free daily email service brought to you by MoneyWeek. For a 3-week FREE trial of the MoneyWeek magazine & website, click here now:

Sign up for a 3-week FREE trial of MoneyWeek

Or if you prefer to place your order over the phone, just call 0207 633 3780 and one of our Customer Service representatives will take your order for you. Please quote reference number EMYKP208 to get your special discount and free issues.

BMW & MINI Military Car Sales - RAF Kirton in Lindsey
Special military savings!!!! For more details on preferential rates offered through the UK Military Sales Programme call 020 7514 3568 or

Speciality teas for RAF Kirton in Lindsey